(Dr. Pentapati Pillarao)
The recent meeting where all opposition parties shared a stage in Tirupati for retention of Amravathi as capital has sparked wide spread debate on whether the opposition in Andhra Pradesh will unite and its impact in the next elections .
Elections are 30 months away and as former British prime Minister Harold Wilson said:” A week is a long time in politics “. In 2019 elections, the main contestants were YSRCP, Telugu Desam, Jana sena, BJP and Left parties.
YSRCP (Jagan reddy) formed the government. Only the Janasena and BJP are now together. Telugu Desam is travelling a lonely path, since BJP had some bitter fights with it. In the national opposition, there is dis-unity because many regional parties are not ready to accept Congress-Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. In Andhra Pradesh, there is some movement for unity, but no clarity on what shape it would be . Definitely, the souse of who will be the Chief Minsietr candidate of them opposition will be a big issue .
The opposition is united on the issue of “ Amravathi Rajdhani “. Though some YSRCP leaders said that it does not matter even if there is opposition unity, the fact is that even if Jana Sena and Telugu Desam unite , it will become a strong force. There is no doubt that Jagan Mohan Reddy would like a repeat of the totally fractured Opposition as in 2019, where the 3 major parties contested separately. Even the opposition parties are aware that they can’t fight without unity.
As Jagan Reddy is in power , there is anti-incumbency. It does not matter that government implemented its manifesto. Elections in India are not won on basis of manifestoes. To retain power, Jagan Mohan Reddy needs the opposition to be divided . Moreover, after 5 years, usually, there is also 25% new electorate.
Opposition in Andhra Pradesh:
1. Telugu Desam has a large cadre, resources , big media and a very powerful community backing it. Naidu is a tireless and experienced leader. TDP is ready for elections anytime. But the fact is that Chandra Babu Naidu needs alliance-parties. Since 1996, Telugu Desam wins when it has good allies .Ideally, Telugu Desam needs Jana Sena and BJP. But many issues remain.
But in politics, anything is possible and TDP is trying to win over the opposition. Naidu mishandled various castes and leaders during 2014-2019 stint as chief minister. Naidu was surrounded by sycophants, who alienated the BJP , Jana sena leaders and important castes. It was a total disaster in 2019.
2. The BJP fought 2019 elections by itself and did very badly. It has an alliance with Jana Sena presently. But there are some problems. Very often, we amusingly hear Telugu BJP leaders say “ Ma Narendra Modi garu , Ma
Amit Shah garu“, as if Modi consults them! The truth is that the national BJP leadership will decide what to do in Andhra. The National BJP would ideally like a pre-poll alliance with Jagan Reddy .If Jagan Reddy refuses to do so, then BJP may consider alliance with TDP, etc .This is a big dilemma for national BJP.
3. Jana Sena Party is led by film actor Pawan Kalyan and contested elections for the first time in 2019. Though it has a huge cadre, its supporters drifted to other parties during voting, as they sensed Jana Sena may not win.
Unlike Chiranjeevi ,who closed his party in 2009,after defeat, Pawan Kalyan has kept his party active. Since 2019, Jana Sena has become stronger and grown roots everywhere. But Pawan Kalyan knows that a divided
opposition will hand over a victory to Jagan Reddy.
Possible alliances in Andhra Pradesh :
a. Telugu Desam would like to unite all the opposition parties. This will ensure that Jagan Reddy will have to face a single candidate unlike in 2019, when there were multiple opposition candidates. Chandra Babu Naidu knows that by-elections and local body elections are not good indicators of popularity of a government. There has been some erosion of support for Jagan Reddy. But there is one big problem. Who will be the chief Minister
candidate for this alliance?
The Jana Sena would ideally like a multi-party alliance. Such an alliance will close the gaps between various castes and also ensure that Jagan Reddy faces a One-to-one fight. Moreover, an alliance between TDP-JanaSena-BJP was tested earlier in 2014 and it worked. But times change and 30 months is still too far away .Telugu Desam cannot win if a section of the Kapu vote is taken away . In 2009, Telugu Desam w as confident of victory, till Chiranjeevi launched his party and secured nearly 20% of the vote. Thebsame thing happened in 2019, when Jana Sena split votes which would have gone to t he TDP.
c. Will Jagan ally with BJP ? The most interesting alliance would be between Jagan Reddy and BJP. A post-poll alliance means zero for the BJP. If the BJP announces “ Special Hodha ‘ to Andhra Pradesh, then Jagan Mohan Reddy will agree to a pre-poll alliance. If Jagan Reddy does not agree to a Pre-poll alliance with BJP, then be sure that BJP will tie up with others, including TDP. That will be dangerous for Jagan Reddy. When Shiv Sena can tie up with Congress Party, why not BJP with TDP ?
Why alliances fail and sometimes win :
1. Two and two is more than 4 in elections. When 2 or more parties join an alliance, votes polled will depend on many factors. Some parties can transfer votes. The alliance parties must have social bases which are not
hostile to each other. Also, the voter must feel that his vote will be on the winning side. A great alliance is between the BJP and Nitish Kumar in Bihar and the alliances in Kerala, where voters faithfully transfer their votes ,on
orders of their party .
2. In Andhra Pradesh, the alliance of 2014 where the Telugun Desam , Jana
Sena and the BJP fought together ,is a good example of a successful
alliance.
3. The BJP in 2019, after its big victory, ignored small parties. But now, in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is begging small parties to join its alliance. Small parties can help greatly. Small parties can bring big victories for big parties.
An alliance does not mean victory. But a good alliance will increase chancesn of victory and create problems for a government. In the case of Andhra Pradesh, the Opposition knows there must be unity if it is to defeat Jagan Reddy. For Jagan Reddy, it is necessary to ensure that his enemies are divided .
The British followed the policy of ‘ divide and rule “. In Andhra Pradesh, unless the Opposition is divided , Jagan Mohan reddy will have a tough fight. Elections are far away and political parties can wait till last minute and announce alliances, as that will create a big surprise. But one fact remains.
The issue of Amravathi will perhaps become a big election issue in the districts of Krishna, Guntur and Prakasam. Amravathi might become a cause for opposition unity. Jagan Mohan Reddy will have to do a lot of damage control and also try to divide his opponents.
The great English writer Shakespeare said 500 years ago that “Misery brings together different people “. Later English writers modified that to “ Politics makes strange bedfellows”. That means, any party can ally with any other party. Don’t be surprised in Andhra.
(Dr Pentapati Pullarao is a New Delhi based Economist and political Commentator)