(Dr Pentapati Pullarao*)
There are 4 political fronts in India. One is the Narendra Modi Front, second is
the Congress front, the third the Independent Federal Front and the fourth is the
Silent Front against Rahul Gandhi. The first 3 fronts are open and loud .The Silent
front against Rahul Gandhi is very active and it stretches across many political
parties except the Congress. The anger against Narendra Modi is political and
communal. But the anger against Rahul Gandhi is personal and worry about his
personal behavior, ambitions and attitude.
On November 8th, 2016, when Narendra Modi announced NoteBandi in that
strange arrogant way ( see the Television pictures of how Modi announced
NoteBandi ) , I felt that it sealed his fate. As an economist , I strongly felt that
Modi cannot prevent the disastrous consequences of NoteBandi. The Indian
economy is ruined and Narendra Modi , the BJP and India are paying the
consequences. The way that Modi acts unilaterally has made other politicians
deeply suspicious of him.
Similarly, as Rahul Gandhi became active, he gained respect .In the beginning,
Rahul Gandhi was hesitant and not very aggressive. But slowly, Rahul Gandhi
could not resist feeling that no one could oppose him. Even that feeling is alright,
provided you kept it within yourself. But on July, 25, 2018, in Parliament, Rahul
Gandhi walked across to the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and roughly
hugged him . To my mind, that single incident had created worry and suspicion
amongst all senior political leaders across the country.
In India, there are some communities ,which hug each other. But most
communities keep a respectful distance . In fact, the Indian ‘ Namaste” itself is a
sign that Indians through thousands of years like to greet each other without
touching each other. Senior political leaders like Mayavathi, Mamta Banerjee,
Naveen Patnaik and KCR expect certain decorum and politeness. Such actions of
Rahul Gandhi and his over-confidence has alienated sections of politicians. All
this will not matter if the Congress expects to get 250 MPs in 2019. But the
Congress is going to contest only 250 MP seats seriously. There is no personal
chemistry between Rahul Gandhi and most non-BJP leaders .
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In politics , a leader must have charisma and also have the ability to win the
affection of others. In India, Nehru got a lot of affection from other leaders as he
never insulted them. In recent times, former prime minister Chandra Sekhar
(1990-91) had the greatest goodwill amongst all political leaders . Manmohan
Singh had no enemies and his humility won him friends everywhere.
One should ponder why Rahul Gandhi cannot count anyone as a friend in politics
. Just a couple of months ago, Rahul Gandhi was everywhere in Telangana. But
after the loss in Telangana, no leader from Telangana has met him. Do you think
that Telangana leader Prof Kondandaram would be given a few minutes time to
meet Rahul Gandhi now ?
The silent anti-Rahul-Gandhi front .
1. Mayawati:
Mayavathi feels that Rahul Gandhi is trying to take away her Dalit base. If
Congress succeeds in taking away some portion of Mayavathi’s Dalit base,
then her politics will be over. The only claim of Mayavathi to political
importance is that a certain percentage of Dalits in Uttar Pradesh vote
according to her orders. That is her strength.
The alliance of Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav has deliberately left out the
Congress as Mayavathi does not want the Congress to grow. Mayavathi
feels that just as she suddenly became chief minister of Uttar Pradesh in
1993 with BJP’s help, she can become Prime Minister in 2019. Further,
there is no personal chemistry between Marathi and Rahul Gandhi. In
fact, Mayavathi might prefer a BJP government rather than a Rahul Gandhi
government in delhi.
2. Mamata Banerjee:
Mamata Banerjee had to leave the Congress in 1998. At that time, Mamta
Banerjee sought the help of Sonia Gandhi to stop her expulsion by Sitaram
Kesri . But Sonia Gandhi refused to intervene and Mamta Banerjee never
forgot that she owes nothing to the Gandhis. Mamta Banerjee like other
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politicians feel that Rahul Gandhi is not humble and considerate . Mamta
has organized a big rally on January 19, 2019 in Kolkata. But Rahul Gandhi
has not attended it . This was a tactical mistake on Rahul Gandhi’s part .
Mamta Banerjee would also prefer the BJP to form a government in 2019
rather than Rahul Gandhi .
3. Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav.
This father and son pair have different views. Mulayam Singh holds the
view that the Gandhis should never be allowed to capture direct power in
Delhi. When Mulayam Singh had the power to make Sonia Gandhi prime
minister in 1998, he refused. Mulayam Singh feels that if the Congress
comes to power, the Minorities will leave him for the Congress . Like
Mayavathi, Mulayam Singh wants to protect his vote base. His son Akhilesh
Yadav thinks that if he becomes the chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, then
nothing else matters . It was only Mayawati’s insistence that Akhilesh
Yadav kept the Congress out of the Uttar Pradesh Mahagathbandhan.
4. KCR and YSR Jagan:
The recent meeting in Hyderabad between KTR ( son of KCR ) and YSR
Jagan meant that they will be both part of the Federal Front , which is
against Congress and the BJP. But in reality, both KCR and YSR Jagan know
that if the Congress captures power in Delhi, their parties will face serious
problems . In future , KCR and YSR Jagan will definitely try to see a non-
Congress government formed in Delhi ,as it will be to their advantage .Both
KCR and YSR Jagan have no personal equations with Rahul Gandhi or the
Congress. Rahul Gandhi should have tried to mend fences with KCR .But
Rahul Gandhi showed no tactfulness.
5. Naveen Patnaik of Odisha :
Naveen Patnaik should have been a natural ally of Rahul Gandhi as both
come from similar backgrounds. Remember Naveen Patnaik’s father Biju
Patnaik was close to both Nehru and Indira Gandhi at one time. Naveen
Patnaik has no national ambitions and there is no clash of interests . The
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Congress has very little chance of winning an election in Odisha presently.
Good politics should have made Rahul Gandhi reach out to Naveen
Patnaik for an alliance or even as a potential friend. But Rahul Gandhi did
neither and now Naveen Patnaik has no interest in seeing a Congress
government in Delhi.
Of course, being friendly in politics does help . But finally, it depends on how
many MPs Congress will get and how its opponent the BJP does. But more
important , how many MPs will the silent Anti-Rahul Gandhi front get .
The future of Rahul Gandhi depends on how well Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati,
YSR Jagan , KCR and Naveen Patnaik do. 2019 is a triangular fight and even if the
BJP is defeated, it is difficult to predict who will become the Prime minister .
(*Dr Pullarao is a Delhi based economist and political commentator)