(Ashok Tankasala)
Something is certainly lost for the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), the ruling party of Telangana, in the just-concluded Lok Sabha polls.
If it has won 9 of the 17 seats on offer on its own and 10 of them
together with its ally MIM, it cannot be argued that the party of KCR has been decimated. On its own, it has a net loss of 2 seats compared to 2014 and badly failed to meet its target of 16 seats this time. The leadership may take satisfaction from the fact that it could withstand the Narendra Modi juggernaut, unlike a number of other non- BJP ruling parties all over the country. Nevertheless, the results are a wake-up call for it, particularly in the backdrop of a resounding victory in Assembly polls only five months ago in last December. Thus there is no gainsaying that these latest results call for a course correction on its behalf.
The data that emerges through various pre- and post -poll surveys combined with actual results show that the core of TRS’ support base has remained intact while the one at what can be called periphery has got somewhat disturbed. It was shared by both the BJP and the Congress. While the core included farmers, artisans, agricultural laborers, beneficiaries of various welfare schemes and large sections of BCs, the periphery was made up of city dwellers, middle and upper-middle classes, educated youth, sections of upper castes and business people. This latter segment which was not attracted by the Congress and the BJP during the recent Assembly elections and hence voted for TRS got enamored of Modi personally five months later. Coupled with
the strengths of local candidates and suspected vote transfers from Congress to BJP due to the former’s animosity towards KCR, the EVMs have yielded some unexpected results.
In any case, if it is time for the BJP and Congress to build upon
their ‘achievements’, the overconfident ruling party will have to
introspect and work assiduously to regain the lost ground. To put it briefly that can happen only through further consolidating its base among the rural population and urban poor and lower middle class on one hand, and bringing around the above mentioned alienated sections.
The simplest of ways to do that is to attend to their genuine
grievances without administrative delays, as has been the case during the first term of TRS. The leadership should now recognize the fact that these sections of people now see the emergence of two alternative platforms in the shape of Congress and BJP, to beat TRS with as a kind of ‘punishment’, even if not to oust it from power itself. Maybe it is their way of pressurizing the rulers into a course correction.
As for the Congress, winning three Lok Sabha seats with 29 percent vote share is actually in proportion to what they got in Assembly elections. Nothing more. Nevertheless, it has come as a morale booster in a backdrop of utter demoralization. Thus it may spur them into some activity despite the fresh demoralizing development of their party’s national hopes crashing badly. On the other hand, for the BJP also which lost 4 of the 5 MLAs and deposits in a huge number of 103 seats in December, this is much bigger morale booster than for the Congress. However, enjoying only a minuscule net voter base, particularly outside Hyderabad, amidst the un-communalized Telangana society, these results can be seen only as a Modi-given boon. How long lasting it is
only time can tell. But again it depends on how the TRS and Congress behave in the coming years.