10 Curious Points About TRS’ Dubbaka Byelection Debacle

Byelections normally favor ruling parties as they are in a position to influence the voters by using state, men, and money power.   So, losing a byelection by a ruling party is a sort of wake up call. The defeat of a ruling party would be more disturbing when the byelection occurs within a year after the party came to power with a thumping majority decimating all the opposition parties. This is exactly what happened in Dubbaka byelection, the result of which declared late last evening.
In Debbaka Assembly constituency, where the byelection is necessitated by the sudden death of TRS MLA Solipeta Ramalingareddy, BJP’s M Raghunandan trounced the ruling party (candidate Solipeta Sujana wife of late  MLA), though with a slender margin of 1079 votes.
Here, it is not a margin that is important, but the rise of BJP in the pocket borough chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR). Dubbaka falls in the district of Siddipet, which is the home district of KCR where he holds considerable sway.
In the byelection, state finance minister T Harish Rao is made in charge of the party’s campaign as he is also the MLA from Siddipet. However,  Harish Rao, a most admired leader in the area, failed to pull off any magic in the election. He held impressive rallies,  roadshows across the constituency. All this remained a stage-managed show.  He had to gracefully own the moral responsibility for the Dubbaka Debacle, after the declaration of TRS defeat.
Against this backdrop, the Dubbaka Debacle throws up many curious points that indicate the shape of the things to come.
  1. Dubbaka debacle, especially the rise of BJP in TRS stronghold, has a clear message to the people that it is not Congress but the BJP that will be the future alternatives to TRS in the state. BJP  is likely to amplify this message to repeat the show in next month’s Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation(GHMC) Elections.
  2. It’s a double whammy for Congress. The party has not only finished as a poor third but also exposed its vulnerability that it is difficult to revive in Telangana.
  3. If the message of the Dubbaka debacle, that Congress can’t be revived in the state,  is understood by the people across Telangana, voters take the saffron party as the dependable alternative to TRS. It is clear that Dubbaka has favorable conditions to defeat the ruling TRS. But, Congress failed to rose up to the occasion while a former TRS leader hit the bull’s eye as a BJP candidate.
  4. Poll pundits went wrong in gauging the mood of the Dubbaka voters’ mood. All pollsters predicted TRS win with outdated prediction models.
  5. A poor argument that two symbols, a chapati roller, and road roller, confused Telangana voters as they bear the resemblance to TRS’ car, is doing round among TRS circles.
  6. BJP’s young Raghunandan Rao, a former journalist, struck a chord with the youth who are a disappointing lot due to severe joblessness in the state. Rao spoke of unfulfilled promises of TRS about the creation of a lack of government jobs and an unemployed allowance. Rao was taken much more seriously than the Congress on the count.
  7. TRS welfare agenda including its Dharani program failed work on the people.
  8. Team BJP succeeded in driving home the point of how the Dubbaka constituency was neglected and how TRS  trio CM KCR, IT minister KTR, and Finance minister Haris concentrated the development only in their constituencies.
  9. Raghunandan Rao, once an active leader among the ranks of TRS, used cleverly his TRS background to demystify the TRS welfare agenda. This worked wonders.
  10. As a result of these developments, TRS has lost 16.5 percent vote share now compared to the 2018 elections.
So, the BJP many observers think that the Dubbaka debacle effect will surely be felt in GHMC elections scheduled in December. GHMC election is taking place at a when the city witnessed unprecedented floods which made the TRS government unpopular. So, the BJP, riding on the wave of Dubbaka, is bound to make use of the failure of GHMC, which is under control of KT Ramarao, the second in command in government.

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